Something good is happening in the Republican Party. The Party Leadership, the power brokers, the “Establishment” is being forced to make a choice that they prayed they would never have to make. One between hatred and fear.
On the one hand is hatred. That would be Donald Trump. He is not only outside of their control, but has openly expressed disdain for them. He operates on his terms. He doesn’t need their money. He ignores political wisdom. He is, technically at least, an outsider. Those views have given him a level of power that is unprecedented in recent Party history. There is a tidal wave of voters that have had it with the continuing betrayals of the political class that have realized they are the ones that actually hold the power and have decided to use it. The target in this case, is the Republican Party leaderships (oft abbreviated as the GOPe, these days). Against this GOPe, the Party base has lobbed the willing tactical nuke of Donald Trump, earning him their unmitigated hatred. In my opinion, the Party leadership’s attitude towards Trump is fairly reflective of their attitude towards their voter base. We’ve seen this reflected repeatedly in how the Party has acted, especially in the House and Senate, most tellingly in the last six years.
On the other hand we have fear. This is Ted Cruz. Ted is a traditional conservative, classical liberal or whatever name you want to put on an old-school, small government constitutionalist. In D.C. and especially in the Senate, Ted Cruz is in an extreme minority. Yet in spite of that, he has created waves that have rocked the Party’s foundation. Some in the press and establishment have brushed his actions off as “grandstanding,” but I believe that more accurately it could be described as standing on principles regardless the cost. He has done this with only the minuscule amount of power that a single Senator has, compared to the weight of his entire Party. This lone wolf approach, on principles against a corrupt government that hates its populace has made him a major contender for President of the United States. He is an existential threat to the Party establishment of the GOP. If he is elected, they are certain that their rule will be ended. For this, he is the most feared candidate in the field in decades.
Hatred or fear.
The voters have left the Leadership with only those two options. In 2010, the voters gave the House back to the Republicans and Boehner cried. He didn’t do much else other than token complaints and then he cooperated with President Obama. In response to voter dissatisfaction, the Party gave us Mitt Romney in 2012. Contrary to popular belief, this was the time when the base was angry. Angry enough that millions sat home allowing another Obama term. In 2014, that anger resulted in several members of Congress losing primaries and others being forced to defend real challenges when it should have been an easy year for Republican incumbents. In spite of this, voters still gave Republicans the Senate and Boehner cried. Again. It took all of two weeks for the Party to through their voters under the bus with what was largely an unconditional surrender to Obama. At this point, conservatives were far, far past the point of anger and into blind rage. By mid-2015 that rage had settled into a resolve to destroy the Republican leadership in particular and the political class in general. This resolve resulted in the dismissal of Boehner as one of the greatest failures since Dick Gephardt. The Leadership acknowledged the dissatisfaction of the Party by doing what? Making Paul Ryan speaker, who promptly picked up where Boehner left off and immediately gave Obama a blank check for spending. This final act, in my opinion, cemented either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz as the next President.
I take it back. The voters didn’t leave the Leadership with this choice. They did it to themselves.
Hatred or fear.
I remember that it was not very long ago that prominent Republicans were warning that Trump would spell the end of the Republican Party. Anonymous establishment people were reported to say that they would vote for Hillary if Trump was the nominee. Closed door meetings were taking place by the Party to find ways of destroying Trumps campaign. Rules changes were floated to try and keep Trump off ballots.
Bush has been put out as the establishment choice. So was Christie. Now it’s Rubio. All have been soundly rejected by the electorate. Both Trump and Cruz have continued to rise. As time has continued, especially under the Ryan House, it has become clear that one of these two mean will almost certainly be the next President of the United States. Now this same Leadership has made its choice.
Hatred.
Now we have Bob Dole endorsing Trump. So has Sarah Palin and Terry Branstad. Orin Hatch and Trent Lott are taking a Trump over Cruz position. Richard Burr is reported to have said he’d vote for Hillary over Trump. Though he’s denying this, the AP is doubled down on their story. At least Lindsey Graham is remaining consistent so far with his “shot or poisoned” position. For now. He’s such a “team player” that I have no doubt he will take whatever position is expected of him.
So what happened? Though still far from being accepted, there is a clear paving of the way for establishment support of Trump. The answer is really quite simple. They know they will not be able to maintain power under a Cruz administration. Moreover, in spite of national press, I believe they know that Cruz will likely beat Hillary and certainly beat Sanders.
Trump’s – arguably – biggest claim to fame is still his book, The Art of the Deal. In the current establishment thinking, there is the possibility of making deals with Trump. It may not be business as usual, but at least there’s the possibility that they’ll remain in power. I honestly do not think it is a matter that they think they can control Trump. I’m sure they’ve come to the realization that they cannot. I do think, they believe they may be able to survive Trump. As far as the Party Leadership it is far more important to defeat conservatives and the TEA Party crowd than it is to beat Hillary. Trump is the lesser of the two evils in this regard.
Personally, I look at this as exactly the opposite. Trump is the lesser of two goods. I’ll be completely up front. I intend to vote for Ted Cruz in the Illinois primary. He best reflects my traditional conservative/classical liberal principles. The truth is, though, he has declared war on the Establishment. He brings to mind the song “But, Mr. Adams” from the musical 1776:
“Well, if I’m the one to do it,
They’ll run their quill pens through it.
I’m obnoxious and disliked, you know that, sir.”
That said, if Trump is the candidate in November, then I will mark my ballot for him. No, I don’t buy his claims to conservatism, in spite of his support of Reagan in the 1980’s. Part of the reason I’d vote Trump is because of the mischaracterization of this election. It is not, as so many think, a choice between Conservatism and Liberalism, as typically characterized by the size and scope of the federal government. Both positions are American in tradition and one that dates back to the founding. What I see here bears similarity to the Jefferson-Hamilton tensions at the founding. They both stand in stark contrast to European based progressive socialism. At one time, the Hamiltonians dominated the Democrat party, but recent years have seen a purge of their upper ranks in favor of Progressives.
That is what this election in 2016 is really about. It’s a choice between American libertarianism (that’s with a “little L”) – regardless the role of the federal government – and European socialism. In that regard we have Trump in the Hamiltonian position and Cruz as the Jeffersonian. Either of these are standing against the covert or overt socialism of Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.
Both of these men, I believe, love American and are dedicated to American concepts of personal liberty. Either man can bring America back to what I have long called “The Great Debate” of the role of the federal government. I suspect you will see compromise by Trump with the Hamiltonians of the Republican Leadership. However I think the price of that compromise will be the elimination or reduction of the Progressive elements that have influenced the Republican establishment since Theodore Roosevelt.
I do not believe that either Trump or Cruz will submit to the progressive establishment. That, I believe, breaks the Leadership’s power lock on the American people, though in Trump’s case, it leaves a remnant that will remain a threat. As far as the Leadership is concerned, it is a Lose-Lose proposition; one of no hope vs. little hope.
The most important issue here, is that this Progressive influence is something that has been a growing cancer in American politics for more than 100 years. I have been focusing on Progressive influence within the Republican party, but remember that this movement has complete control of the Democrat party. More chilling is that it has a domination in the Judiciary. It will not be dismantled overnight. Even with Cruz elected, it will be years – painful years – to get America back. Assuming that the American people are willing to fight to reclaim it.
In this regard, I do not believe that any “deal” Trump makes will be one that favors Progressives. The may not be destroyed, but they will be defeated. And while revenge may be sweet, I’m more interested in long term victory.